IRELAND: The defeat by Wales clearly wasn't too good for World Cup business but currently it is providing real focus for Ireland's start next Sunday.

The problem is the trip to Paris the following weekend where France will have their tails up and Ireland traditionally have their backsides kicked. So there may not be a Grand Slam to compensate for missing out on our best ever opportunity at a World Cup.

Still, Declan Kidney should be glad that the loss of Brian O'Driscoll isn't the setback now that it would have been three years ago, and that elsewhere his injury sheet is clear, bar Leo Cullen, who might have got a start in the third round against Italy.

If Mike Ross stays fit for the campaign, then Ireland can challenge for runners-up spot behind France, providing the new load on the shoulders of Les Kiss and Mark Tainton is one they can carry successfully.

Casualties: Brian O'Driscoll, Leo Cullen

Star Turn: Jonny Sexton

Championship Odds: 4/1

ENGLAND

The last six days of their campaign involve a quick turnaround from Paris to Twickenham, where Declan Kidney's crew provide the final opposition -- an interesting wind-up, that.

There is so much uncertainty about the England squad, from how they will approach the tournament, to who will lead them, to whether their coach has any chance of making it to the summer, that it's hard to see them doing what their fans want them to do: defend their Championship title.

Edinburgh and Rome (a shift to Stadio Olimpico) will both be heaving so if they come up short there it will be carnage thereafter. Despite all the unknowns there is huge pressure on Stuart Lancaster to deliver good results immediately.

In which case dumping Nick Easter overboard seems hard to fathom from this vantage point. You wonder who is going to steady the ship in his absence. And it looks like it will need steadying.

Casualties: Danny Care, Toby Flood, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Manu Tuilagi

Star Turn: Ben Foden

Championship Odds: 4/1

ScotLAND

A Scotland international from the not so distant past last week described his lot as: "Big and mostly quite good forwards with a crap set of backs ready to stuff it up behind."

We think the second half of that sentence meant that the backs would not make much of their chances, rather than putting the ball where only a cavity search could find it.

The position of Edinburgh in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals and Glasgow in fourth spot in the Pro12 suggests there is life after the World Cup, which ended with the Scots distraught after losing to England.

The opportunity for revenge comes quickly in the Calcutta Cup match in the first round in Murrayfield.

The absence of Kelly Brown and Ruaridh Jackson -- especially the latter -- will mean a change of game plan from their coach. If they go to Rome again looking to avoid the wooden spoon, Andy Robinson will beat himself up with it.

Casualties: Kelly Brown,

Ruaridh Jackson, Moray Low, Simon Danielli

Star Turn: Dave Denton

Championship Odds: 25/1

wales

A year ago, Wales were wondering if their coach would survive to the autumn as they went into the Championship with two wins from their 12. Then they won -- somehow, with no set-piece -- against England first up, and by the end of the year they were wailing about missing out on a World Cup final and burning effigies of Alain Rolland. Their current position, statistically, is a bit healthier (50 per cent from last eight) but defeat in Dublin would make it four losses in a row and a change in mood. Nowhere in the rugby world does your credit run out faster than Wales.

Their challenge is to cope without an engine room of Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn Jones, who set phenomenal standards for work-rates in the World Cup.

If Warren Gatland has to factor Rhys Priestland and Dan Lydiate out from Dublin, then his team will have changed shape for the worse. A losing start in store.

Casualties: Luke Charteris, Alun Wyn Jones, Gethin Jenkins

Star Turn: Toby Faletau

Championship Odds: 3/1

france

The first thing Phillipe Saint-Andre needs to do is organise discontent in the camp so the French can feel right at home and get off to a winning start -- that would take them through two rounds before they have a break to get their heads right/wrong for Edinburgh. Or perhaps not. The new man saw much he admired in the way captain Thierry Dusautoir took a lead in the World Cup crisis, supported by Imanol Harinordoquy and Julien Bonnaire.

Unlike when his predecessor Marc Lievremont took over from Bernard Laporte, Saint-Andre won't want to tear up everything and start again. So the World Cup runners look now as they did in October except at 10 where Lionel Beauxis is the likely starter, thanks to improved form since his move to Toulouse. As for his partner, he can't go far wrong between Morgan Parra and Dimitri Yachvilli. Perfect run of fixtures opens the door for Saint-Andre.

Casualties: Luc Ducalcon, Romain Millo-Chluski, Yann David

Star Turn: Thierry Dusautoir

Championship Odds: 6/4

italy

New coach Jacques Brunel has pointed to the summer tour to Argentina and North America as the first real chance to put his mark on things -- for the moment he is still trading with Nick Mallet's leftovers, on and off the field. Whatever about changes in the background team, Brunel is limited with what he can do on the pitch, but it hasn't stopped him scouring the country looking for new faces, which wasn't the Mallet way -- the South African relied on a hard core in return for loyalty, which he got. But there were too many players with no competition for their places.

Brunel is aiming extraordinarily high, with Italy being contenders inside two seasons. And his captain Sergio Parisse, while acknowledging the turbo boost that came from beating France last season, says they need five competitive games more than one big result and four hammerings. They moved past that point last season but need new blood.

Casualties: None too serious

Star Turn: Sergio Parisse

Championship Odds: 150/1

- Brendan Fanning

MIKE PHILLIPS has backed Wales Lions-packed side to gain revenge on world champions South Africa and complete a glorious summer by toppling the All Blacks in their own backyard.

The confident scrum-half admitted Wales tough summer schedule against the two best teams in the world will be judged on results alone, but he insisted Warren Gatlands side were more than capable of upsetting the southern hemisphere giants.

The 27-year-old Osprey stood toe-to-toe with the physical Springboks, starting every Test of an ultimately heartbreaking series.

And he insisted the Welsh players had already targeted the forthcoming fixture as the perfect opportunity for revenge.

It will be great to play for Wales against them and hopefully get a victory. We owe them one and this is a great opportunity for us, Phillips insisted.

As long as the boys turn up well and we get a good side out there, then we have a great chance of beating them at home.

Wales chances of a morale-boosting victory increased earlier this week as Springboks coach Peter de Villiers confirmed no players involved in the Super 14 final will make the trip.

With reigning champions the Bulls and the Cape Town-based Stormers favourites to reach the final, the likes of Bryan Habana, Jaque Fourie, Schalk Burger, Victor Matfield, Pierre Spies, Bakkies Botha and Fourie du Preez could all be absent.

They will always have a great side out no matter what because they have such a pool of players to choose from, Phillips said.

But this is one game the Welsh players are really targeting and looking forward to. We can go out there and do ourselves proud.

Wales fly to New Zealand for a daunting two-Test series just days after that Millennium encounter, and it is players like the world-class Phillips who could make the difference between potentially morale-sapping defeats ahead of next years World Cup and historic victory.

Gatlands Wales certainly looked a completely different proposition with the return of Phillips and fellow Lion Gethin Jenkins for the final game of a disappointing Six Nations against Italy.

Phillips bristled with the trademark confidence, dynamism and aggression that had been so lacking in Welsh defeats against England, France and Ireland, and it is those winning qualities Gatland would so love to be inherent in every member of his squad.

Ask Phillips if two gutsy, narrow defeats would represent a positive return from a series in the All Blacks backyard, and the answer is very clear.

No. It is about results really. When you play international games, you go out there to win and nothing else, he said.

As a player you go on the field and you expect to win. You have the determination to do that. We will be looking to go out there and get a big scalp.

Its a very important tour in terms of our preparations for the next World Cup and developing a bit of confidence. New Zealand are a great side, with a great record, but its a key time for us.

Its been a difficult year for Phillips, one that has seen him follow a reputation-enhancing Lions performance with a long spell on the sidelines through injury.

The Six Nations cameo against the Italians was a pertinent reminder of what Wales and the Ospreys had been missing, but it is the big stages on offer in the months ahead where Phillips has always been most at home.

Coming back from injury has been tough. Even in the last couple of games, the ankle injury has still been niggling me a bit, he admitted.

On the whole its been a disappointing season for me with my injuries. But Im hoping to end it on a high with the Ospreys and by playing a part against South Africa and on the tour to New Zealand.

That would be great to end the season on a big note. Thats what Im striving for now.

Before the challenges with Wales comes a potentially successful end to the domestic season with the Ospreys firmly in the hunt for Magners League glory.

Friday nights derby against the Dragons provides its own opportunity for revenge after the post-Six Nations humbling at Rodney Parade, and delivering the Magners League crown is the only way Phillips believes the Ospreys will be able to judge this season as a success.

A bonus-point win against Paul Turners side will secure a home play-off semi-final that would make them strong favourites to reach the Magners Grand final at the end of the month.

I think there is a sense we owe the Dragons one. They played really well against us and deserved their victory. We didnt play very well on the night and were really poor. We are playing at home so it is a big game for us.

We have to make sure we get a home semi-final in the play-offs. Its much easier to play at home than going away.

We love playing at the Liberty and we have to get some silverware if we are to get something out of the season after the Heineken Cup disappointment.

There is a lot of expectation down here and we have a lot of high-profile players.

People expect us to win most of our games and we are more than capable of going on and winning this league. It will be a tough ask, but it is within our grasp.

17th February 2010 13:57

 

A 93 per cent tackle completion rate for unlucky-to-lose Scotland

The Welsh comeback, France's annihilation of Ireland, and England's soporific win over Italy come under the statistical microscope this week.

For all the claims that England were boring, the stats don't make Italy out to be any saints either. So why not criticise them as well?

Ok, England only made five line-breaks. Italy made not a single one - and that when both teams were making only 90 per cent of their tackles!

Italy kicked 61 per cent of their possession, England only 54.

But aside from that, the teams were incredibly evenly matched in Rome, rather bearing out our opinion that people underestimate Italy, both at home and if they are playing a team which attacks up front rather than out wide as England do. If you want to beat Italy, stretch them out wide.

Ireland's capitulation to France makes for grim reading.

A 27 per cent error rate is what undermined what ought to have been winning stats in terms of possession (38:53 to 27:29), completed passes (184-91) and stealing opposing line-outs (4-0).

A penalty/free-kick concession count of 13-8 did not help the Irish either, but with France making seven breaks to Ireland's four, it seems clear that France's ability to finish those breaks off that counted for something as well. Wales must be careful.

Very careful in fact. the Welsh missed tackle count was the highest of the lot, with only 86 per cent of their tackles made.

But where Scotland shot themselves in the foot was discipline. They conceded twelve penalties to Wales' five, allowing the Welsh a phenomenal 52 minutes of territorial advantage to Scotland's 32.

The Welsh were also lively with the ball in hand, making a staggering 227 passes, even if those only yielded four line breaks. They kicked away only 34 per cent of their possession, a very low figure these days.

That Scotland managed six line breaks yet made fewer than half of Wales' pass total is a further damnation of Wales' defence and/or vindication of Scotland's sterling efforts - the Scots' tackle completion rate of 93 per cent was the best of all Six Nations.

The Welsh were also culpable of far too many errors - 25 per cent of their possession ended with some form of error. If only we had to hand the difference between the first and second halves though...

Ireland coach Declan Kidney admitted that they showed signs of rustiness during the opening game of their defence of the Six Nations.

Ireland came out on top of a 29-11 scoreline against Italy at Croke Park, but after a decent opening half they failed to create anything in the second against a dogged Italian effort. And while Kidney and captain Brian O'Driscoll were glad to get off to a winning start, both admitted that the Irish need a lot of improvement if they are to test France in Paris next Saturday.

"We won, we managed to get a few points up and I think the squad ethic kicked in as well," Kidney said. "They're the pluses, I thought the scrum went ok, but obviously there's loads of things that we want to get better.

"We were bound to be a little bit rusty, but we'll take the win and move on. We need the passes to stick a bit more, we were close to line breaks a number of times but I think Italy defended very well as they always do.

"We could have won by a little bit more, but last year we scored two intercept tries but this year we didn't get any intercepts because Italy were playing a different way to what they did last year. They're a difficult side to break down. I think sometimes we can be a bit disrespectful in how we talk about them (Italy), but we've a lot of respect for them and it was a tough game."

Kidney opted not to have a training camp with the squad over Christmas, and he believes that decision meant that his side lacked cohesion.

"We decided to give the lads a break at Christmas and take a break because giving the players a break is just as important as any training we do and they had a tough twelve months last year," he added.

O'Driscoll agreed saying, "It's difficult to pick up where you left off in November. By the time we played South Africa we'd been together for a month."

"We've only been together for a fortnight and we didn't go into camp over Christmas so it's about trying to click again, gelling together and getting our combinations right. This will stand to us next week.

"At times we created good opportunities, but we didn't take them. We made a lot of half breaks, but the passes didn't go to hand. It maybe would have flattered us a bit, but it would hae been nice to score a few more tries."

Kidney expects both Paul O'Connell and Ronan O'Gara to recover quickly from the knocks that saw them forced off during the second half, while he says the performances of the replacements pleased him.

"Ronan got a bang on the knee, Paul got a bang on the eye and had blurred vision so it was prudent to get them off, but I'm sure they'll front up again on Monday when we get back and start looking at Paris," he said.

"There were a few lads who were in and around last year who are carrying knocks and that's what we're trying to build a squad for. We want guys to come in seamlessly, and I thought some of the guys that came on brought their own little bit of chemistry to it.

"There the little things we'll need as time goes on, because we're well analysed and are reading us more and we need to have different ways of breaking teams down. We didn't quite do it today, but we're on the way to doing it."