IRELAND: The defeat by Wales clearly wasn't too good for World Cup business but currently it is providing real focus for Ireland's start next Sunday.

The problem is the trip to Paris the following weekend where France will have their tails up and Ireland traditionally have their backsides kicked. So there may not be a Grand Slam to compensate for missing out on our best ever opportunity at a World Cup.

Still, Declan Kidney should be glad that the loss of Brian O'Driscoll isn't the setback now that it would have been three years ago, and that elsewhere his injury sheet is clear, bar Leo Cullen, who might have got a start in the third round against Italy.

If Mike Ross stays fit for the campaign, then Ireland can challenge for runners-up spot behind France, providing the new load on the shoulders of Les Kiss and Mark Tainton is one they can carry successfully.

Casualties: Brian O'Driscoll, Leo Cullen

Star Turn: Jonny Sexton

Championship Odds: 4/1

ENGLAND

The last six days of their campaign involve a quick turnaround from Paris to Twickenham, where Declan Kidney's crew provide the final opposition -- an interesting wind-up, that.

There is so much uncertainty about the England squad, from how they will approach the tournament, to who will lead them, to whether their coach has any chance of making it to the summer, that it's hard to see them doing what their fans want them to do: defend their Championship title.

Edinburgh and Rome (a shift to Stadio Olimpico) will both be heaving so if they come up short there it will be carnage thereafter. Despite all the unknowns there is huge pressure on Stuart Lancaster to deliver good results immediately.

In which case dumping Nick Easter overboard seems hard to fathom from this vantage point. You wonder who is going to steady the ship in his absence. And it looks like it will need steadying.

Casualties: Danny Care, Toby Flood, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Manu Tuilagi

Star Turn: Ben Foden

Championship Odds: 4/1

ScotLAND

A Scotland international from the not so distant past last week described his lot as: "Big and mostly quite good forwards with a crap set of backs ready to stuff it up behind."

We think the second half of that sentence meant that the backs would not make much of their chances, rather than putting the ball where only a cavity search could find it.

The position of Edinburgh in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals and Glasgow in fourth spot in the Pro12 suggests there is life after the World Cup, which ended with the Scots distraught after losing to England.

The opportunity for revenge comes quickly in the Calcutta Cup match in the first round in Murrayfield.

The absence of Kelly Brown and Ruaridh Jackson -- especially the latter -- will mean a change of game plan from their coach. If they go to Rome again looking to avoid the wooden spoon, Andy Robinson will beat himself up with it.

Casualties: Kelly Brown,

Ruaridh Jackson, Moray Low, Simon Danielli

Star Turn: Dave Denton

Championship Odds: 25/1

wales

A year ago, Wales were wondering if their coach would survive to the autumn as they went into the Championship with two wins from their 12. Then they won -- somehow, with no set-piece -- against England first up, and by the end of the year they were wailing about missing out on a World Cup final and burning effigies of Alain Rolland. Their current position, statistically, is a bit healthier (50 per cent from last eight) but defeat in Dublin would make it four losses in a row and a change in mood. Nowhere in the rugby world does your credit run out faster than Wales.

Their challenge is to cope without an engine room of Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn Jones, who set phenomenal standards for work-rates in the World Cup.

If Warren Gatland has to factor Rhys Priestland and Dan Lydiate out from Dublin, then his team will have changed shape for the worse. A losing start in store.

Casualties: Luke Charteris, Alun Wyn Jones, Gethin Jenkins

Star Turn: Toby Faletau

Championship Odds: 3/1

france

The first thing Phillipe Saint-Andre needs to do is organise discontent in the camp so the French can feel right at home and get off to a winning start -- that would take them through two rounds before they have a break to get their heads right/wrong for Edinburgh. Or perhaps not. The new man saw much he admired in the way captain Thierry Dusautoir took a lead in the World Cup crisis, supported by Imanol Harinordoquy and Julien Bonnaire.

Unlike when his predecessor Marc Lievremont took over from Bernard Laporte, Saint-Andre won't want to tear up everything and start again. So the World Cup runners look now as they did in October except at 10 where Lionel Beauxis is the likely starter, thanks to improved form since his move to Toulouse. As for his partner, he can't go far wrong between Morgan Parra and Dimitri Yachvilli. Perfect run of fixtures opens the door for Saint-Andre.

Casualties: Luc Ducalcon, Romain Millo-Chluski, Yann David

Star Turn: Thierry Dusautoir

Championship Odds: 6/4

italy

New coach Jacques Brunel has pointed to the summer tour to Argentina and North America as the first real chance to put his mark on things -- for the moment he is still trading with Nick Mallet's leftovers, on and off the field. Whatever about changes in the background team, Brunel is limited with what he can do on the pitch, but it hasn't stopped him scouring the country looking for new faces, which wasn't the Mallet way -- the South African relied on a hard core in return for loyalty, which he got. But there were too many players with no competition for their places.

Brunel is aiming extraordinarily high, with Italy being contenders inside two seasons. And his captain Sergio Parisse, while acknowledging the turbo boost that came from beating France last season, says they need five competitive games more than one big result and four hammerings. They moved past that point last season but need new blood.

Casualties: None too serious

Star Turn: Sergio Parisse

Championship Odds: 150/1

- Brendan Fanning

Leinster flanker Shane Jennings has undergone surgery on a broken arm, leaving his hopes of making Ireland's Rugby World Cup squad in the balance.

The 29-year-old, capped nine times by his country, was injured in last weekend's Magners League Grand Final loss to Munster at Thomond Park.

Early reports suggest a lay-off of eight weeks, giving the former Leicester openside a chance of playing a part in Ireland's World Cup warm-up games in August.

Declan Kidney's men will play Scotland, France (twice) and England prior to the tournament in New Zealand, with Ulster flanker Stephen Ferris another currently on the injured list.

Munster's David Wallaces is the current holder of the Ireland No.7 jersey, with Jennings' Leinster team-mate, Sean O'Brien, also comfortable in the position.

France will tackle the Pumas in Buenos Aires on Saturday without flanker Wenceslas Lauret.

The Biarritz youngster, who made his Test debut in the recent drubbing at the hands of South Africa in Cape Town, injured his collar bone in last weekend's tour victory over Argentina 'A'.

The tourists ran out 37-14 winners over the Pumas' second string to prepare for Saturday's Test, which will have added significance for the home side after they lost a two-Test series to Scotland thanks to a 13-9 defeat in Mar del Plata on Saturday.

"We won with belief," Scotland's Rory Lawson said. "There was courage there, but also we are a team that now understand we are a good team. We believe in each other. We played very well and we became a difficult team to beat.

"We are all delighted by the result. It was a very difficult game, the conditions were incredibly difficult to play. We came to Argentina to play great opponents, very hard to beat, and to win two Tests here is outstanding."

A 12-10 victory ensured France clinched their first Six Nations Grand Slam since 2004, but they were pushed all the way by a much-improved England at the Stade de France.

It was far from a spectacular display by the French all of whose points came in the first half courtesy of three Morgan Parra penalties and a Francois Trinh-Duc drop-goal.

Les Bleus were strangely hesitant for much of the match and were happy to play a game of control for the most part with the boot of Trinh-Duc dictating their tactics.

By contrast England put in easily their most impressive display of the tournament and, as demonstrated by a stunning early try from Ben Foden, showed plenty as an offensive force with some eye-catching running rugby.

But in the end they were left to rue a couple of second-half openings that went begging as France held on to seal their clean sweep.

It was the hosts who were on the board first after Dylan Hartley was blown for not throwing in straight at the line-out just three minutes in.

That handed the French an excellent attacking platform and, after England had also subsequently been pinged at the scrum, France hit the front as Trinh-Duc landed a rather ugly but effective drop-goal.

But England hit back in magnificent style with the kind of incisive, fluent three-quarter move that their critics have been crying out for.

Mike Tindall played a key role in securing territory before the ball was quickly spun through the hands of the back-line from right to left, culminating in Chris Ashton flicking a superb first-time pass to Ben Foden who scampered over in the left corner.

It capped a hugely encouraging start for England, the visitors full of purpose and adventure, securing quick ball for their back-line and thrusting forward with ball in hand at every opportunity.

However, they were somewhat undermined by the elements, with their positive opening derailed by the onset of heavy rain which turned the contest into an increasingly cagey affair with France kicking for position and managing to turn the screw.

Morgan Parra missed a long-range penalty after Simon Shaw was caught offside, but the Wasps second-rower was quickly penalised again for a rash tackle and it proved the lock's last contribution as he was forced off with an injury to his right arm and replaced by Tom Palmer.

But Parra made the most of his next opportunity with the boot on 18 minutes as Riki Flutely was caught playing the ball at the ruck whilst off his feet, handing the Clermont scrum-half a straightforward penalty chance in front of the sticks which he slotted with ease.

English indiscipline

Parra was at it again five minutes later, France edging back ahead, without having had to work particularly hard to do so, as England were penalised for collapsing a scrum.

Indeed, while the French were some way from their best, they continued to assert themselves on the back of English indiscipline and extended their advantage on 33 minutes.

Prop Dan Coles was again penalised for collapsing the scrum, England's fifth infringement at the scrum, and Parra made light of the difficult conditions to fire over the resulting penalty as France pulled 12-7 ahead.

England manager Martin Johnson moved ruthlessly to stem the penalty count at the break as he hauled off both Coles and Hartley and replaced them with the more experienced David Wilson and Steve Thompson.

The changes had the desired effect, England making much the better start to the second period and they defied the conditions with a sharp handling move on the blind side which released Ashton.

But, with just Poitrenaud ahead of him, and Flutey in support, the Northampton winger spurned the golden opportunity as he opted to put in an early kick ahead and was beaten to the touch-down by the retreating French full-back.

With France happy to try and contain, and the rain having ceased, it was England who continued to demonstrate their attacking flair and they were agonisingly close to another score in the 61st minute after a superb break from Mark Cueto.

The Sale winger hit the line at pace and scythed through the French defence but crucially lacked close support and, having been hauled down inside the 22, England saw the chance escape altogether as Danny Care knocked on.

Like that of Ashton, it would be a missed opportunity they would ultimately come to regret.

Despite his back-line looking the most dangerous they had for many moons, Johnson decided to shuffle his pack on 63 minutes and introduced Jonny Wilkinson for Flutely and England's all-time leading points scorer promptly showed why as he kicked a superb long-range penalty to drag England back within two points.

But that was to be as close as England would get with France happy to run down the clock during the closing stages as they carefully and safely protected possession through a series of controlled, slow phases.

While it hardly came with a flourish, it mattered not a jot to the ecstatic crowd in the Stade de France as they jubilantly saluted the Grand Slam at the final whistle.

France coach Marc Lievremont has expressed his surprise at England's decision to drop fly-half Jonny Wilkinson to the bench for Saturday's RBS Six Nations game in Paris.

The World Cup winner has been replaced by Toby Flood in the starting line-up, one of six changes made by England manager Martin Johnson after the 15-15 draw in Scotland last weekend.

While Lievremont was expecting Wilkinson to start if fit, he has warned his side to not be complacent ahead of their tilt at the Grand Slam in the Stade de France.

He said: "I was expecting Wilkinson to start if he was fit, or not to take part at all if he hadn't recovered from his head injury.

Changes

"I haven't forgotten however that Wilkinson was not playing last year at Twickenham and Toby Flood was at fly-half.

"It didn't save us from conceding 30 points.

"And we know that if the match is in the balance, Wilkinson can come on and that could be decisive."

England's other changes see winger Ugo Monye replaced by Northampton's uncapped Chris Ashton, full-back Delon Armitage gives way to Ben Foden and outside centre Mathew Tait is dropped as 31-year-old World Cup-winner Mike Tindall makes his first appearance for a year.

In the pack, Simon Shaw comes back in place of Louis Deacon while Lewis Moody, dropped against Scotland, returns at openside flanker and Joe Worsley switches to blindside with James Haskell dropping to the bench.

Cornerstone
Lievremont added: "We were expecting the return of Simon Shaw who is the cornerstone of the English pack.

"We were also expecting England to beef up their backline with a player like Tindall even if I appreciate Mathew Tait is more creative and unpredictable.

"Through the selections of Shaw and Tindall, England have unveiled their game plan."

Lievremont also agreed with counterpart Johnson's assessment that the home team have more to lose and could be affected by the pressure of playing for a Grand Slam.

"It's true," he said. "We will be playing for high stakes and it could inhibit our players but we know it and we'll take it into account before the game."

17th March 2010 10:31

Bastareaud: Out for revenge

France centre Mathieu Bastareaud claims his team have all the ammunition required to see off England in Saturday's Six Nations clash in Paris, and clinch their first Grand Slam since 2004.

The 21-year-old has returned to the starting line-up after warming the bench in last Sunday's 46-20 win over Italy after a niggling calf problem.

He replaces David Marty - who scored two tries against the Italians - in the midfield alongside veteran Yannick Jauzion. It's a measure of how much favour he has regained following the scandal that surrounded Bastareaud in New Zealand last August.

His false claims of being assaulted outside the team hotel provoked a diplomatic incident which saw the New Zealand Government apologise swiftly, followed by French Prime Minister Francois Fillon doing the same when Bastareaud's lies were exposed.

Bastareaud, who went to a mental institution following that and is presently completing the community service he was ordered to do by the French Rugby Federation, is evidently keener not to dwell on that and focus instead on the challenge of their old rivals England.

England have failed to convince in this year's renewal - they were held 15-15 last Saturday by previously pointless Scotland - but Bastareaud knows they will raise their game on Saturday.

"We (both teams) are not there to be affectionate to each other on the pitch!" said Bastareaud, who will be winning his ninth cap.

"It is France versus England, we are playing for the tournament, and the English for self respect after being heavily criticised.

"If they can stop us from winning the Grand Slam then they will do anything to do so. We are going to prepare for this match in a serious manner. We are expecting a huge physical battle.

"It is imperative that we stick to our game-plan. Of course they will take us on in the physical areas but we have the means to reply to them effectively."

Bastareaud, cousin of veteran Arsenal and France defender William Gallas, said that the humiliating 34-10 defeat by England last year at Twickenham would serve as an extra motivating factor.

"We really took a hit there, a hell of a hit actually because we came into it on the back of a good performance against Wales (France won 21-16)," he said.

"Everything was going well, we were living together harmoniously, it was a relaxed atmosphere... and then we go and ship nearly 40 points.

"What's more there was a crazy atmosphere at Twickenham, we had the bizarre impression that nothing could work, that everything was going for them on the pitch.

"That was difficult. It was a hell of a blow to our progress. That match left its mark. It is clear that it will be a motivating factor come Saturday."

Bastareaud, who impressed in the wins over Scotland and Ireland scoring a try in the former, said that while it would be a red hot atmosphere on Saturday there would be none of the open animosity that dominated encounters between the two countries in previous eras.

"The atmosphere is calmer now, it was more in the 1990's where it was pretty hostile," said Bastareaud.

"Now, though, mentalities have changed, we are both in each other's clubs, there are French players at English teams and vice versa and there are no problems.

"Of course, England are one of the biggest northern hemisphere rugby nations therefore there is rivalry, but there is no animosity solely because they are English."

Bastareaud said that out of the lows of last year, his community work had changed his perceptions of life.

"It is going well. I am visiting rugby schools. I tell the boys there about my career such as it is so far. If I can give advice, I give it," he said.

"I had the opportunity to coach the young lads one afternoon. And it really pleased me. Why not I thought go for a coaching diploma? That could be interesting."

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via planetrugby.com

17th February 2010 13:57

 

A 93 per cent tackle completion rate for unlucky-to-lose Scotland

The Welsh comeback, France's annihilation of Ireland, and England's soporific win over Italy come under the statistical microscope this week.

For all the claims that England were boring, the stats don't make Italy out to be any saints either. So why not criticise them as well?

Ok, England only made five line-breaks. Italy made not a single one - and that when both teams were making only 90 per cent of their tackles!

Italy kicked 61 per cent of their possession, England only 54.

But aside from that, the teams were incredibly evenly matched in Rome, rather bearing out our opinion that people underestimate Italy, both at home and if they are playing a team which attacks up front rather than out wide as England do. If you want to beat Italy, stretch them out wide.

Ireland's capitulation to France makes for grim reading.

A 27 per cent error rate is what undermined what ought to have been winning stats in terms of possession (38:53 to 27:29), completed passes (184-91) and stealing opposing line-outs (4-0).

A penalty/free-kick concession count of 13-8 did not help the Irish either, but with France making seven breaks to Ireland's four, it seems clear that France's ability to finish those breaks off that counted for something as well. Wales must be careful.

Very careful in fact. the Welsh missed tackle count was the highest of the lot, with only 86 per cent of their tackles made.

But where Scotland shot themselves in the foot was discipline. They conceded twelve penalties to Wales' five, allowing the Welsh a phenomenal 52 minutes of territorial advantage to Scotland's 32.

The Welsh were also lively with the ball in hand, making a staggering 227 passes, even if those only yielded four line breaks. They kicked away only 34 per cent of their possession, a very low figure these days.

That Scotland managed six line breaks yet made fewer than half of Wales' pass total is a further damnation of Wales' defence and/or vindication of Scotland's sterling efforts - the Scots' tackle completion rate of 93 per cent was the best of all Six Nations.

The Welsh were also culpable of far too many errors - 25 per cent of their possession ended with some form of error. If only we had to hand the difference between the first and second halves though...